Sign in

BELLRING BRANDS (BRBR)

Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Reported on May 7, 2024 (After Market Close)
Pre-Earnings Price$58.44Last close (May 7, 2024)
Post-Earnings Price$58.69Open (May 8, 2024)
Price Change
$0.25(+0.43%)
  • Expanding Production Capacity: The company is scaling up its production facilities, targeting a 20%+ production increase in 2025 through the ramp-up of two new greenfield facilities, which will support robust sales growth.
  • Strong Brand Momentum and Household Penetration: Premier Protein achieved an all-time high household penetration of 18-19%, coupled with a strong repeat rate of about 50%, indicating successful consumer acquisition and retention across various channels.
  • Robust Sales and Effective Promotional Strategy: With 28% year-over-year net sales growth and successful promotional initiatives (including two notable club promotions), the company is maintaining strong margins and driving continued demand even as non-promoted sales also perform well.
  • Margin Pressure from Promotions: Aggressive promotional activity, which was a key driver in Q2, created pricing headwinds that might continue to erode margins if similar discount tactics persist in future quarters.
  • Supply Constraints and Inventory Challenges: Repeated mentions of insufficient internal inventory and temporary out-of-stocks indicate production delays that may limit revenue growth if demand continues to outpace supply.
  • Rising Input Costs: The expectation of significant increases in product and logistics costs—especially for powders and shakes—poses a risk to profitability if these higher costs are not fully passed on to consumers.
  1. Guidance Potential
    Q: Can demand exceed high-end guidance?
    A: Management noted they have the production flexibility to meet and even exceed the high-end guidance if demand stays robust.

  2. Revenue Outlook
    Q: Will Q3 revenue be higher than Q2?
    A: The company expects a modest sequential increase in Q3 revenue compared to Q2.

  3. Gross Margin Build-Up
    Q: How built 300 bp margin expansion?
    A: They attributed the 300 basis point gain primarily to lower protein costs versus last year, partially offset by promotions.

  4. Gross Margin Seasonality
    Q: Are Q3 and Q4 margins comparable?
    A: Management expects margins in Q3 and Q4 to be similar, with Q3 showing slightly better year-over-year favorability.

  5. Margin Drivers
    Q: What factors drove margin expansion?
    A: Key drivers included lower protein costs, volume leverage, and some nonrecurring adjustments, mildly offset by promotions.

  6. Cost Outlook
    Q: Will input costs moderate this quarter?
    A: Costs are projected to increase sequentially in Q3—especially for powders—even though protein costs remain relatively favorable.

  7. Capacity Expansion
    Q: What are the 2025 capacity plans?
    A: They plan to grow shake production by over 20% in 2025, supported by expanding greenfield facilities.

  8. Powder Investment
    Q: Will resources shift between powder brands?
    A: Management intends to support both brands, with an extra focus on Premier Powder given its strong growth trajectory.

  9. Q3 Guidance
    Q: Is Q3 tracking with second-half growth?
    A: Q3 results are expected to mirror second-half growth rates with similar promotional pacing year-over-year.

  10. Promotions Impact
    Q: What learnings emerged from promotions?
    A: Recent promotions delivered robust displays and consumer response, confirming the brand’s fundamentals.

  11. Pricing Increase Rationale
    Q: Why is a price increase planned?
    A: The upcoming Q4 shake price hike is driven by rising costs and competitive actions, aligning with industry trends.

  12. Non-Promoted Growth
    Q: What fuels non-promoted sales acceleration?
    A: Approximately 80% of growth is coming from non-promoted channels, drawing new households into the category.

  13. Consumer Metrics
    Q: What are current penetration and repeat rates?
    A: Premier reached over 18% household penetration with a 50% repeat rate, showcasing strong loyalty.

  14. Consumer Base Expansion
    Q: Is the consumer base broadening?
    A: The brand is successfully attracting a wider age mix while remaining focused on adult nutrition.

  15. Brand Interaction
    Q: Is Premier Powder affecting Dymatize sales?
    A: There’s minimal overlap as each caters to distinct consumer segments, limiting trade-down effects.

  16. Marketing Spend Shift
    Q: Are marketing dollars shifting among brands?
    A: Some marketing funds have been reallocated to support both Premier Powder and Dymatize more efficiently.

  17. Club Promo Competition
    Q: Will competitors mimic club promotions?
    A: Most competitors are already active in club promotions, and similar events are typical industry practice.

  18. E-commerce Competition
    Q: Will e-com discounting persist for Dymatize?
    A: Aggressive e-com discounting is noted now, but it should ease as rising commodity costs influence pricing.

  19. TDP Recovery
    Q: When will temporary out-of-stocks improve?
    A: Improvements in TDPs are expected monthly through Q3, reaching optimal levels in Q4.

  20. Shipments vs Consumption
    Q: Will shipments modestly exceed consumption?
    A: Shipments are projected to slightly outpace consumption as retailers incrementally restock.

  21. Out-of-stock Behavior
    Q: Do customers switch flavors when out-of-stock?
    A: Customers typically choose alternate flavors or pack sizes, maintaining their brand preference.

  22. TDP Shelf Recovery
    Q: What happens to shelf space during shortages?
    A: Temporary shelf gaps occur during TDP shortages, but space is quickly reclaimed without lasting loss.

  23. Aisle Placement Expansion
    Q: Can in-store placements be expanded?
    A: The focus remains on boosting displays, particularly in pharmacy sections, to enhance visibility.

  24. Long-term Display Strategy
    Q: Is external display placement sustainable?
    A: Retailers' strong interest in health and wellness trends supports ongoing external displays.

  25. E-com & In-store Synergy
    Q: Can physical channels boost e-com sales?
    A: Initiatives to integrate in-store promotions and sampling aim to enhance Dymatize’s e-com performance.

Research analysts covering BELLRING BRANDS.